Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 3.101082 3.727669 4.429501 5.271058 6.249769 7.349017 8.673901
2025-05-11 2.178761 2.965039 3.941540 5.231834 6.878856 8.896615 11.539458
2025-05-18 1.558379 2.364369 3.458579 5.027452 7.189130 10.028506 13.998686
2025-05-25 1.139388 1.907923 3.037780 4.777824 7.337705 10.903097 16.165431
2025-06-01 0.903001 1.650419 2.828591 4.758013 7.757911 12.144630 18.912511
2025-06-08 0.739084 1.464220 2.682124 4.789324 8.229229 13.476783 21.886861
2025-06-15 0.605336 1.295647 2.526936 4.769511 8.598420 14.668633 24.736395
2025-06-22 0.470670 1.091636 2.269760 4.529845 8.565334 15.210632 26.607492
2025-06-29 0.391160 0.975703 2.147774 4.501755 8.872276 16.308970 29.433652
2025-07-06 0.326662 0.874949 2.034756 4.468421 9.156628 17.382123 32.289937
2025-07-13 0.302534 0.858744 2.087234 4.756724 10.051235 19.566199 37.171411
2025-07-20 0.270436 0.815714 2.075227 4.912117 10.707892 21.379302 41.538506
2025-07-27 0.246835 0.789950 2.099916 5.153404 11.569354 23.655170 46.934039
2025-08-03 0.209257 0.717449 2.005771 5.128479 11.901211 24.989342 50.750138
2025-08-10 0.168858 0.624831 1.845532 4.932083 11.857542 25.609088 53.300809
2025-08-17 0.133854 0.536515 1.677022 4.688063 11.679992 25.946560 55.336284
2025-08-24 0.114168 0.490310 1.608215 4.669063 11.983345 27.248150 59.289142
2025-08-31 0.099240 0.455279 1.562704 4.700025 12.399200 28.804962 63.837862
2025-09-07 0.084945 0.417449 1.501319 4.680592 12.695602 30.135193 68.021567
2025-09-14 0.067255 0.359312 1.366404 4.444881 12.455251 30.315272 69.897191
2025-09-21 0.057416 0.329176 1.311274 4.417260 12.710986 31.572804 74.054326
2025-09-28 0.048948 0.301388 1.257421 4.384478 12.949125 32.807152 78.237979
2025-10-05 0.047239 0.304691 1.309602 4.668042 14.015949 35.956465 86.648911